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Arctic Warming Index (WEATHER)

Tracks real-time Arctic temperature deviations from historical averages.

This market uses live temperature data from Utqiaġvik, Alaska, a station on the Arctic Ocean where warming consistently outpaces the global average. Changes that look small elsewhere tend to appear here earlier and more clearly.

The price is defined as the current temperature relative to its 30-year historical average for the same hour, turning a long-running Arctic weather record into a tradable climate indicator. The temperature metric used is temperature_2m (surface temperature at 2 meters above ground level), and the ratio is calculated in Kelvin units.

Data Sources​

We fetch real-time temperature data from the following providers:

  • Aviation Weather Center - Official aviation weather service providing accurate meteorological data
  • Open-Meteo API - Open-source weather API with comprehensive historical and real-time data
  • National Weather Service API - Official U.S. government weather data from NOAA
  • Market mid price - Current market's mid price from Tings market

Historical data for the 30-year average calculation is sourced from:

  • Open-Meteo API - Comprehensive historical weather database with decades of archived temperature records

All sources are weighted equally in our oracle calculation. These coefficients might be adjusted during the testnet phase as we assess the reliability and accuracy of each weather data provider.

Oracle Algorithm​

The final oracle value is calculated using the oracle algorithm described in the Oracle Price Evaluation documentation.